The “Red Wave” forecast for the 2022 Midterms did not come in. What did was in was effectively a low tide. Redistricting manufactured some wins for both sides, while some less-than-stellar candidates helped sink Republican hopes in the US Senate. We can anticipate several results from the Midterm elections, but one of the most significant questions is - how will the 2022 Midterms affect gun rights?
Republican preconceptions about midterm election trends seemed to hurt them as well, as they were crowing about their presumed victory weeks before election day instead of diligently working for the win. President Joe Biden may have thrown them hanging curve balls galore, but they still struck out several times, especially in the Senate.
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The 2022 Midterms: How will they affect gun rights?
Bucky Lawson
11-18-22
The Senate will either stay 50-50, or the Democrats will gain a 51-49 majority. Unfortunately, there’s not much difference. A 50-50 Senate means Vice President Kamala Harris holds the tiebreaking vote, and there’s no question about with whom she will side.
Anti-gun Democrat Senatorial candidates John Fetterman and Raphael Warnock were very beatable, but Republicans, who ran candidates with no experience in public office, failed to give voters clearly superior choices.
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That’s a big ask for such a prominent position. No experience means no record on which to run.
Fetterman has already won Pennsylvania, and Warnock is headed to a December 6 runoff with Republican Herschel Walker in Georgia. It could still go either way, but my gut tells me that Warnock will pull it out. Even if I’m wrong, a Walker victory only preserves the status quo.
Honestly, I’m not terribly worried about the Senate because of the filibuster. If you're unfamiliar with that word, it refers to a Senate rule requiring 60 votes to pass most legislation, including any prospective gun control.
Despite the supposedly bi-partisan gun control bill passed last summer, there remains little appetite for further gun control beyond the Democrat side.
A Warnock win would move the Democrats one vote closer, but they would still need 9 Republican votes to pass any gun control, even if all the Democrats voted in favor. That’s not likely.
The House did pass an “assault weapons” ban last summer but there has been little enthusiasm for it in the Senate beyond the usual suspects like Dianne Feinstein (D-CA), Chris Murphy (D-CT), and a few others. I don’t think that will change, especially with West Virginia Democrat Joe Manchin coming up for reelection in 2024.
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But What About the House of Representatives?
Despite the rosy projections, the GOP gained a razor-thin majority, the size of which is still undetermined. It looks like a 9-seat Republican majority at best. But that’s no guarantee of holding the line on gun rights. The Democrats have already proven that most of them will vote for gun control.
Five Democrats voted against HR 1808, the “assault weapons” ban" Henry Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez of Texas and Maine’s Jared Golden won reelection.
Wisconsin’s Ron Kind retired, and Oregon’s Kurt Schrader lost his primary. The latter two were replaced by Republicans in the November election.
Two Republicans voted for the “assault weapons” ban: New York’s Chris Jacobs and Pennsylvania’s Brian Fitzpatrick.
Jacobs is no longer in Congress after the blowback from his support for gun control. He announced his retirement instead of facing the voters in the newly redistricted New York House races. Fitzpatrick easily won reelection. There’s no reason to believe he has changed his mind about guns.
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We don’t know how the new Republican members will vote on guns. The precarious majority means gun rights advocates can afford few, if any, defections. The new Speaker, probably California’s Kevin McCarthy, and the new Majority Whip will have to work to keep the votes in line.
The best thing about Republican control in the House is that the Speaker and the committee chairs control which bills are heard. McCarthy is not staunchly pro-gun, but neither is he anti-gun. The slim majority makes him vulnerable to pressure from the House Freedom Caucus and the Second Amendment Caucus to stifle any prospective gun control.
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...The key change, in my mind, is that Ohio Congressman Jim Jordan will chair the powerful House Judiciary Committee, from whence the “assault weapons” ban sprang and through which other anti-gun bills must pass. Jordan is a key member of the Freedom Caucus and a close ally of Second Amendment Caucus Chairman Thomas Massie of Kentucky.
Congressman Thomas Massie leads the House Second Amendment Caucus.
A slim Republican majority would force McCarthy to listen to Massie.
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But the thin majority means the Republicans may only have one extra vote over the Democrats since the committees are seated proportionally. Jordan must keep tight control and ensure the members attend important votes.
Jordan and Massie argued vehemently against the “assault weapons” ban, repeatedly invoking the Constitution, the Second Amendment, and several pro-gun Supreme Court cases. I’m cautiously optimistic that Jordan and Massie can stiffen McCarthy’s spine regarding gun control measures. I say “cautiously” because we would be fools to fully trust any politician, regardless of party.
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Boiling It Down
Since the Republicans won the House, we are looking at things staying mostly the same for the next two years. I can’t see any gun control emerging from the Judicial Committee and actually making it to a floor vote. There will no doubt be some anti-gun bills introduced, but they will likely go nowhere, barring some major defections.
McCarthy won’t have the political capital to push pro-gun measures like national concealed carry reciprocity, even if he has the stomach for it, which I doubt. Nothing like that would pass the current Senate anyway, and if, for some reason, it did, the old man in the White House would gleefully veto it with no chance for a Congressional override.
The Democrats will once again control the Senate. I think certain Democrat gun controllers will take advantage of that to push HR 1808, but the filibuster looms large, especially with the Manchin situation. He has repeatedly said that he will not vote to eliminate the filibuster rule, which can be done.
I don’t see him changing his mind with a stiff electoral challenge staring him in the face. Arizona Democrat Kristen Sinema has also opposed eliminating the filibuster.
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President Biden continues to push for his cherished “assault weapons” ban (HR 1808), but barring some unforeseen tragedy that will swing votes, it likely won’t happen. But never underestimate the impact of a media campaign featuring murdered kids. That’s a wild card that cannot be predicted.
I don’t know whether a Republican House can repeal HR 1808, thus taking it off the table. Even if they can, I doubt it will be high on McCarthy’s to-do list, if it shows up at all. I think the best we can hope for is that a Republican House blocks further gun control bills and that the Senate chooses not to take up HR 1808.
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The best hope to advance gun rights continues the be the Supreme Court’s Bruen Decision. (Shutterstock)
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Other than that, I think the gun situation will stay the same in Congress. Any potential gains will come from the courts. The Supreme Court’s Bruen Decision is the real pro-Second Amendment wave and will likely be for some time.
Expect state and local “assault weapon” and magazine bans to fall, despite the legal gyrations of states like California, New York, New Jersey, and Illinois. Likewise, draconian carry laws like those in New York and New Jersey.
Nor would I be surprised to see serious challenges to the National Firearms Act and Gun Control Act in the next couple of years. No way to predict how that might go.
I get that the election results disappointed pro-gun folks. I’m right there with you. But putting your trust in politicians is always a risky endeavor. Never forget that remaining in office is their primary goal.
Except in rare cases, our rights are secondary to that. I get that one party is worse than the other on gun rights, but none is to be fully trusted.
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Don’t be surprised if serious challenges to the National Firearms Act emerge soon.
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Still, the GOP is certainly the lesser of two evils regarding gun rights. Republicans ridiculously underperformed in the elections but may have done enough to keep the line. Their obvious failures will hopefully lead them to clean up their act and buckle down for 2024. The anti-gunners will never stop. Neither can we.
It’s probably not as bad as it seems right now. But we MUST do better next time.
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